But the theory does face an uphill battle for acceptance by skeptical cosmologists. For example, Stanford University cosmologist Andrei Linde, a chief proponent of the multiverse theory, dismisses the pea instanton as a mathematical abstraction with no clear basis in reality. Moreover, he questions whether it's even possible to explain how the universe could have been created from nothing.
“Stephen is an extremely talented person,” Linde is careful to say of Hawking. “Sometimes, however — this is my interpretation — he trust mathematics so much that he makes calculations first and then interprets them later.” Linde finds this trust in the primacy of the math on this subject to be a bit like religious faith. “You know, it is such an esoteric science, creation from nothing, you can come away with your interpretations and there is no way to check it. It is like a religion.”
But mathematical abstractions have been Hawking’s stock in trade. And this certainly wouldn’t be the first time that one of the ideas he has championed has been met with initial incredulity only to gain support over time. (Of course it’s also true that some of Hawking’s mathematical abstractions have not checked out.)
WHAT PUT THE BANG IN THE BIG BANG?
Despite the enigma of the singularity, the big bang theory is unquestionably
one of the most successful ideas in the history of science. It precisely
predicted, for example, the relative amounts of the two most abundant elements
in the universe, hydrogen and helium. It also successfully predicted that
the universe would be filled with microwave energy, dubbed the cosmic microwave
background — a kind of echo of the big bang explosion. And the theory
neatly explained why today's universe is expanding: The motion is a relic
of the big bang's explosive beginnings.
But where did all the matter and energy in the universe come from, and what really put the BANG in the big bang? The theory actually does not say. In fact, contrary to common belief, the big bang does not explain the origin of the universe. It doesn't even explain a bang. Something had to happen before the big bang to get it going.
“Although the classical cosmological theory is called the big bang, the theory in fact contains no description whatever of the ‘bang,’” Guth is fond of saying in speeches about the early universe. “It proposes no answer at all to the question of what banged, how it banged, or what caused it to bang. It is really a theory of the aftermath of a bang.” The big bang description of creation, Guth says, simply begins with a cosmic fireworks display already in progress — a fireball of outreaching radiation and particles.
In his inflationary universe theory, Guth offered the first compelling explanation for what ignited the fireball. “Inflation is an attempt not to explain the origin of the universe,” he says, “but to provide a theory of the bang — a theory of what it was that set the universe into expansion and what created the energy and matter we see today.”
As a particle physicist at the Stanford Linear Accelerator back in the late 1970s, Guth never imagined that he would wind up making a profound contribution to the field of cosmology. But while at Stanford, Guth found himself working on a problem that lay at the intersection between the two scientific fields. In working on the problem, Guth focused his attention on the incomprehensibly tiny and hot patch of spacetime that was the early universe. There would have been no matter in this patch — spacetime would have consisted of a vacuum. Why study a patch of empty space?, you might ask. Well, a vacuum is not really empty. Like a sail billowing in the wind, the fabric of spacetime in a vacuum actually is roiled by quantum fields.
As Guth knew, the grand unified theories, or GUTS, of particle theory predicted that the vacuum of the early universe would have been dominated by particularly energetic fields. As these primordial “scalar” fields fluctuated, their potential energy would have risen and fallen. Guth realized that it was theoretically possible for the potential energy of the fields to have gotten temporarily “stuck” at a high value. Admittedly, this was an assumption. But when Guth worked through its implications, he stumbled onto inflation.
His calculations showed that stuck scalar fields would have caused a tiny bubble of “false vacuum” to nucleate from the primordial patch of spacetime. The amazing thing about the bubble, Guth saw, was that it would have contained a huge amount of antigravitational energy.
Although this idea may seem unbelievable, it’s actually in accord with
standard particle theories. Here’s how it works:
Since an ordinary vacuum contains energy in the form of quantum fields,
gravitational energy must be present as well. To understand why, it helps
to remember Einstein’s famous equation, E = mc2. According to
the equation, energy (“E”) and the mass of matter (“m”) are really two
forms of the same stuff. So if matter, such as planet Earth, exerts a gravitational
pull, so must energy. In other words, the energy-containing quantum fields
of an ordinary vacuum exert a gravitational pull, albeit a weak one.
But when Guth used Einstein's relativity equations to see what happen inside a bubble of false vacuum, he found that the gravitational energy would have the opposite effect of ordinary gravity. In other words, this gravity would push, not pull — it would, in essence, be a powerful of antigravity.
Starting out as small as one billionth the size of a proton, the initial bubble of false vacuum would have doubled in size many times in an incomprehensibly short interval, propelled in this exponential growth by the antigravity. According to one inflation model, in just 10-35 seconds, the bubble would have grown to the size of a basketball. And some inflation models predict far larger growth than that, perhaps as large as 101012 centimeters in diameter. That exponential number is a one followed by a trillion zeroes. (To print that many zeroes would require more than a million average size books.) Amazingly, if this picture of inflation is correct, it means that the portion of the universe we observe today is just an infinitesimally tiny mote compared to the whole.
The bubble of false vacuum would have had another peculiar property as well. According to particle theory, as the bubble expanded, the density of the energy within it actually would have remained constant. To picture this, imagine an inflating balloon. If the density of air inside is to be maintained, the total amount of air must be increased. Similarly, to maintain the same density of energy within the expanding bubble, the total energy must be increased — and by a huge amount, because the inflating bubble is growing exponentially. This theory seems to be saying that energy was created from nothing. And, in fact, Guth calls inflation the “ultimate free lunch.”
“It may sound as if I wasn’t there in my physics class when they talked
about the conservation of energy,” Guth jokes. “But I was.” During inflation,
he says, “the total energy of the system is conserved.” The enormous positive
energy that builds up with ferocious speed during inflation creates a precisely
balancing amount of negative gravitational energy (the ordinary attractive
kind). “And so the net probably is zero,” Guth says.
Eventually (meaning in a very tiny fraction of a second), the false
vacuum would have decayed, Guth realized. As this happened, the enormous
energy that had been accumulating within the false vacuum would have been
suddenly released, creating an exploding fireball of radiation and hot
particles.
In other words, the big bang. “Inflation,” Guth concludes, “supplies the beginning to which the standard big bang theory is the continuation.”
INFLATION'S AMAZING EXPLANATORY POWER
But inflation theory does much more than explain where the big-bang
fireball came from. It also explains a fundamental quality of our universe
that is ignored by the big bang theory. In short, observations show that
the texture of the cosmos is smooth overall but lumpy at smaller scales.
The smoothness is evidenced by the cosmic microwave background energy,
which appears to be at almost exactly the same temperature throughout the
cosmos. Yet any look through a powerful telescope reveals the lumpiness
amidst the homogeneity: Galaxies, clusters, and superclusters.
According to inflation theory, prior to the bout of exponential growth, the contents of the universe were packed together into an exceedingly tiny space — close enough for everything to come to a uniform temperature and density. (In the big bang theory, the contents of the universe were too loosely packed for this to happen.) Then, as the universe inflated, quantum fluctuations spontaneously wrinkled the fabric of spacetime. These wrinkles were almost instantly stretched to enormous size by inflation and thereby ironed permanently into warp and woof of the universe. (According to Neil Turok, this idea first was proposed by none other than Stephen Hawking.) After the big bang, the imperfections formed regions of slightly higher gravity on an otherwise remarkably homogenous background. This caused matter to coalesce into the galaxies and clusters that punctuate the uniformly cold and dark cosmic background like a diamond necklace glittering against a black dress.
Most models of inflation make another significant prediction, but one that has not yet been conclusively borne out by astronomical observations: The geometry of spacetime should be very nearly precisely flat. If observations show otherwise — if they show that the cosmos is even slightly curved into an “open” geometry — then either the theory is wrong or scientists will have to find a way to alter it so that inflation can produce an open universe. It may be difficult to imagine curved space, but remember that Einstein told us that both matter and energy exert a gravitational pull by bending spacetime into a kind of well. So comets plunge toward the sun because they are “falling” into the star’s gravitational well.
If the density of matter in the universe were high enough, its collective gravity would curve space such that the cosmos, if viewed from outside, would look like a sphere. In this case, the universe would be described as “closed.” Moreover, there would be enough gravity to overcome the kinetic energy of outrushing matter as the universe expanded. In this case, the ratio of gravitational to kinetic energy, a term called “omega,” would be greater than 1. Ultimately the cosmos would decelerate, stop expanding, and then actually contract in a “big crunch.”
You can rest assured that such cosmic overcrowding wouldn't happen for
at least 60 billion years, Guth says. And besides, astronomical observations
show that there isn't nearly enough matter in the universe for this to
be a risk worth worrying about.
But observations do suggest that the universe could be open. In this
case, the density of matter would be too low for gravity to overcome the
universe’s expansion. Thus, omega would be less than 1, the curvature of
space would be open — something like a horse’s saddle — and the universe
would continue expanding forever.
In the flat universe predicted by most models of inflation, the cosmos would be perched precariously between closed and open. Omega would have to equal 1 to within one part in 100,000, meaning that gravity and expansion would be, for all intent and purposes, equal. In this case, the universe would continue expanding forever; the expansion would forever slow but never quite reach zero.
Inflation predicts flatness because regardless of the shape of the infant universe, the enormity of inflation would drive the part of the universe we can observe today toward perfect flatness. To understand why, imagine an ant on the surface of an inflating balloon. As the balloon inflates to enormous size relative to the ant, the part of the surface the ant can see appears flat, just as the surface of the Earth seems flat to us.
INFLATION'S COMPLICATIONS
Much to the dismay of inflationary theorists, however, a wide variety
of astronomical observations indicate that the density of matter in the
universe is somewhere between 50 to 80 percent below that required for
flatness. Given these numbers, therefore, the universe looks quite open.
But last spring, theorists regained hope for a flat universe when new observations
showed that the rate of cosmic expansion was accelerating, not slowing
as had been expected. If these observations are right, something must be
pushing the very fabric of spacetime apart. And that something, many cosmologists
believe, is a theoretical form of energy called the cosmological constant.
Since energy is equivalent to mass, the repulsive energy of the hypothesized cosmological constant must, like any mass, exert gravity. And if there were precisely enough of this gravity, it would balance the books: Although the universe might fall far short of the mass density, and thus gravity, required for flatness, the gravity provided by the cosmological constant would make up the difference.
In other words, the universe would be flat after all, and inflation mavens like Guth and Linde would smile because observations would be in accord with their theories.
But there are quite a few “ifs” in this scenario, Turok skeptically points out. The new data on cosmic expansion might, in fact, be wrong. And even if the data are right, and even if a cosmological constant existed, its energy might add up to an omega less than 1, making the universe open. And that would mean trouble for standard theories of inflation. Which is exactly why Turok and Hawking have been pursuing their theory: The pea instanton, it turns out, produces an open universe through inflation.
There are other complications with inflation as well. For example, in their equations, cosmologists must enter by hand a very precise value for the scalar fields that drive the exponential growth. Without this fine tuning, the scalar fields crash like a breaking wave, and the false vacuum is churned into a frothing mess of true-vacuum bubbles. This picture of the universe looks nothing like our own.
In the eyes of many scientists, such problems haven’t invalidated the basic theory. Instead, they’ve spurred creativity. Cosmologists have proposed a raft of variations on the original inflationary theme, including hybrid inflation, hyperextended inflation and even “supernatural” inflation. Perhaps the most profound variation is “eternal inflation,” a concept championed by Guth, Linde and many other cosmologists. Guth explains it this way:
After about 10-30 seconds of inflation, half of the original region of false vacuum would have decayed into a normal vacuum. But that would have left half of the universe still in a false vacuum, meaning it continued inflating. Theoretical calculations (ones that Turok finds quite suspect) show that the rate of this inflation actually would have been much greater than the rate at which the false vacuum decayed. Simple logic therefore dictates that if some areas were inflating much faster than other were decaying, inflation would have outpaced decay. And to this day, some part of the universe must be continuing to inflate. In other words, once inflation gets going, it’s eternal.
If this is right, we live in a region in which the false vacuum decayed,
giving rise to a standard big bang. But other areas of the universe must
still be inflating. And if a proposal from Andre Linde called “chaotic
inflation” is right, there would be still other areas in which inflation
never really took off in the first place. The result would be the multiverse,
a living, growing, multi-branching entity with new regions budding out
of old ones, some buds going nowhere and others growing to colossal size.